Is the Canadian Housing Market at the Bottom? What the Numbers Say Right Now

Canadian home prices are down 21.2% from their peak. Adjust for inflation and the real drop is closer to 37%. That is the steepest correction this country has seen in 50 years, and it is the reason so many buyers are still sitting on the fence.

Here is the part most people miss. Markets do not bottom when the news gets good. They bottom when everyone is too nervous to move. Looking at the latest national numbers, from consumer confidence to Brampton’s price chart to the record pile of unsold condos in Vancouver, the case that Canada is at or very near the bottom is stronger than the headlines suggest.

https://youtu.be/b1GwPP9xROg

Gary McGowan walked through the full report on this week’s RealtyChatter episode. Watch it below, then keep reading for the breakdown.

Consumer confidence is at historic lows

Start with mood, because mood drives money. Canada’s consumer confidence index sits at 54.8. The long-term average is closer to 100.

To put that in perspective: between 2002 and 2023, the index dipped below 60 exactly once. Since 2025 it has happened 13 times. Trade tension with the U.S., shifting supply chains with Europe and Asia, and general economic uncertainty are all part of it.

When confidence drops, people hold on to their money. That shows up in restaurants, car lots and retail. It shows up in real estate most of all, because a home is the biggest purchase most people will ever make.

September home sales: buyers stepped back

September is usually a bounce month. Families are settled after summer, and buyers come back out. Not this year. Month over month, September sales were:

• BC: down 5.7%

• Ontario: down 3.1%

• Canada overall: down 2.3%

• Alberta: up 1.1%, the only bright spot

Alberta keeps quietly outperforming. Everywhere else, buyers hit pause. Expect October to land somewhere close to flat.

Listings vs. sales: where the buyer’s markets are

The year-over-year picture tells you who holds the power.

Nationally, listings are up and sales are down 7.7%. That gap is what a buyer’s market looks like.

Province by province, it gets more interesting:

• BC: listings down 5.1%, sales down 9%

• Ontario: listings down, sales down 8.3%

• Alberta: listings up, sales down 5.9%

• Quebec: listings up 20%, sales down 7.1%

Quebec is the standout. Inventory up 20% with sales falling means homes are sitting, and sitting homes create opportunities for buyers who are ready. In Ontario and BC, fewer homes are coming to market, which is an early sign sellers are done panic-listing.

The steepest housing correction in 50 years

The national average price is down 21.2% from peak. After inflation, the real decline is 36.9%.

For comparison, the major Canadian corrections over the past several decades came in around 13%, 13%, 9% and 8%. This one is more than double the worst of them.

That is why it feels like a shock. Most homeowners and buyers have never lived through a correction this deep. And when people are caught off guard, they tend to freeze. That is exactly what the sales numbers show.

Brampton home prices: down 37% from the peak

If you want to see where the correction hit hardest, look at Brampton, Ontario.

In March 2022, the average home price in Brampton was about $1,486,000. As of September 2026, it is about $930,000. That is a 37.4% drop in four and a half years, or more than half a million dollars off the average home.

Brampton was one of the hottest markets in the country through late 2021 and early 2022. Bidding wars, multiple offers, prices climbing every month. Buyers who stretched to win at the top are now the ones feeling it most.

The lesson for sellers is simple. What your neighbour got in 2022 is not a pricing strategy.

What a housing market bottom actually looks like

This is the most useful part of the episode, because history gives us a map.

Ontario’s last big cycle played out like this:

1. 1989 to 1993: prices fell.

2. 1993 to 1997: a sideways grind. Prices barely moved for about four years.

3. 1997 onward: the recovery started.

Real estate tends to move in roughly four-year cycles, sometimes five. If we are at the bottom now, which is Gary’s read on the data, the next three to four years likely look like that mid-90s sideways grind. Not another crash. Not a boom either.

You will only know for sure that this was the bottom six to twelve months after the fact. Nobody rings a bell.

Will home prices go up in Canada? The sideways grind

A sideways grind does not mean prices go nowhere. It means modest, incremental gains, roughly 1% to 5% a year, instead of the 10% to 12% annual jumps we saw in the run-up.

So that $930,000 home in Brampton is not going to drop to $300,000, and it is not going to rocket back to $1.5 million next spring. Expect it to stay in that range and creep up slowly.

That kind of growth is healthy. It is the pace incomes can keep up with, and the pace a normal market can support. The double-digit years were the anomaly.

Builders are betting on rentals, and that changes future supply

Here is a trend that will matter more in 2029 than it does today.

Over the past four quarters, rental housing starts are outpacing traditional condo-for-sale projects for the first time in a long time. Instead of building a 200-unit tower and selling every unit, developers are holding them as rentals or building for firms that want rental portfolios. They see more long-term value in owning than in a quick sale.

Rental construction is growing fastest in:

• BC: up 16%

• Atlantic Canada: up 15%

• Ontario: up about 8.5%

Short term, more rental supply is good news for tenants. Asking rents are down for the 24th straight month.

Longer term, it is a supply problem for buyers. A condo building typically takes about four years from launch to handover. Fewer condos being built for sale today means fewer one- and two-bedroom units available to first-time buyers in three to four years. Less supply later usually means firmer prices later, which is a real point in favour of buying an entry-level unit while the market is soft.

Vancouver’s unsold condos and the pre-construction appraisal gap

Vancouver currently has about 4,600 unsold new condos, an all-time record.

Some of the buyers who signed pre-construction deals three or four years ago are now struggling to close. Their unit is appraising well below the price they agreed to, and the lender only finances the appraised value. The buyer has to cover the gap in cash.

If you own a pre-construction unit that is closing soon, talk to a mortgage professional now, not two weeks before closing. If you are shopping, this is part of why builders and assignment sellers are more flexible than they have been in years.

Three dates to watch

Three policy dates could move the market over the next few months:

1. October 28: the Bank of Canada’s next interest rate decision, with one more announcement scheduled before year end.

2. January 1, 2027: Canada’s foreign buyer ban is set to expire. The federal government has not said what comes next. A likely outcome is a lift with specific restrictions on what foreign buyers can purchase.

3. March: Ontario’s HST relief on new homes ends, which could pull some new-build buyers off the fence before the deadline.

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What this means if you are buying

You have time, and you have negotiating power. If prices grind sideways for the next few years, there is no reason to rush, and no reason to wait for a deeper bottom that may already be behind us.

Sellers are getting antsy. That gives you room. You do not need to open close to asking price. Make a reasonable offer, test the water and see where the seller actually sits.

What this means if you are selling

Price for the market you are in, not the one you wish you were in. Not what you feel your home is worth. Not what the house down the street sold for three months, a year, or three years ago.

The best line in the episode: don’t price for today, price for tomorrow. Price ahead of the market. The goal is to be in the market, not sitting on it.

Buying or selling anywhere in Canada?

Gary has trained thousands of Realtors across the country, and he has a network of agents he has personally vetted from BC to Newfoundland. If you are thinking about a move, reach out at homes@garyamcgowan.com and he will connect you with an agent who knows your market and will actually listen to what you need.