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Toronto Condo Market Update: What September's Numbers Mean for Buyers and Sellers
In the Toronto condo market right now, for every unit that sells, about six don't.
That one ratio explains almost everything happening with GTA condos this fall. Prices are sliding, listings are building, and the people who bought pre-construction expecting a quick gain are feeling it most. On this month's episode of RealtyChatter, Gary McGowan and mortgage broker Dion Beg went through the September TRREB condo numbers for Toronto, Peel, York and Durham. Here is what they found, and what it means if you own a condo, want to sell one, or are thinking about buying.
Why condo investors are getting squeezed
The episode opened with the fallout from a condo conversion investment that could no longer guarantee rental income to its investors. Gary's follow-up videos on it drew more than 20,000 views, and the comments told the story. These were not greedy speculators. Dion's read is that most were regular people trying to get a foot on the property ladder, and the simplest way to do that looked like signing a piece of paper and waiting for it to be worth more.
That plan only works one way. A pre-construction condo bought as an investment usually depends on a single source of profit: the value going up. When the tide turns, there is nothing else holding it up. Many owners who bought before COVID made real money. Plenty who bought later are now holding units where the profit has disappeared and the monthly cash flow is negative. Short-term rental plans have shifted too, which takes away another exit.
Cash flow vs appreciation: Dion's duplex story
Dion moved to Canada in 2008 and saw two paths open to him as an investor. One was pre-construction condos. The other was buying older single-family homes and converting them into duplexes or multi-unit properties.
The condo path was easier. Sign, wait three to five years, and hope. The duplex path was dirty and gritty. It meant older houses, construction sites, evenings and weekends, plus real cash and sweat equity.
He chose the harder road for one reason: from day one, he could put two tenants in the property and it would cash flow, no matter what the market did. Between 2010 and 2020, he admits he watched clients make $300K to $400K on a couple of condos and wondered if he had picked wrong.
Then the market changed. His properties climbed to around a million dollars and have since come back to about $800K. But they cost roughly $450K all in, they cash flowed from the start, and they cash flow today. The condo buyer who bet on appreciation alone has no such cushion.
Gary added his own three questions for any buyer looking at real estate: How are you going to buy it? How can you add value to it? How are you going to sell it? Adding a legal basement suite to a single-family home is the classic answer to the second question. Gary owns fourplexes and fiveplexes, and he says the value of four or five income streams per property looks very different, and a lot safer, at this point in the cycle.
GTA condo prices: the September 2026 numbers
Every month, the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board releases its stats around the fifth or sixth. Gary and Dion compared the last three months across Toronto, Peel, York and Durham. Keep in mind that Toronto carries the most weight here. It has by far the most condo inventory in Ontario.
Condo listings are climbing
Toronto added roughly 300 more active condo listings in September compared to August, landing about where July was. Peel, York and Durham were roughly flat, with small reductions.
Dion sees two drivers. More buildings are completing, which pushes units onto the market. And more investors who had to close, or who now realize they can't carry their units, are listing. He says that when some callers ask him for mortgage advice, the best advice he can give them is to sell, especially if they own more than one.
Toronto condo sales are down 16% since July
Toronto condo sales have dropped about 16% since July. Peel actually rose against August, but that is normal. September almost always looks stronger than August, because so many people cram their holidays into the end of summer. That makes the next number even more striking.
Peel dropped $51,000 in one month
Toronto's median condo price slipped month over month to about $535K, with York sitting in a similar range. Peel and Durham are trading at roughly the same level as each other. But Peel's median fell $51,000 from August to September.
Dion called it out directly. That is more than a 10% drop in a single month, and it was measured against August, which is usually the weak month. Unless there is some unusual factor in the mix, that is alarming. Gary's read is that sellers are finally adjusting to what buyers are actually willing to pay.
Are there still bidding wars on GTA condos?
No. Sale to list price sits around 97% across all four regions, nearly unchanged month over month. In plain terms, a condo listed at $500,000 is selling for about $485,000.
Dion was a little surprised it was still that high. He expects some of that comes from properly priced listings, and he is also seeing deals well below that average, with some buyers paying 85% to 90% of list price. Both things are happening at once.
How long does it take to sell a condo in Toronto?
Toronto is the fastest of the four regions at about 40 average days on market, a month and a couple of weeks. Gary expects that number to drift toward 50 days and stay there until next spring, depending on how many new units hit the market this fall.
Now look at inventory against sales. Toronto had 8,226 active condo listings in September, and about 1,300 sold. Dion did the quick math: for every condo that sells, roughly six don't. The market is leaning hard toward buyers, and Gary points out that the buyer's mindset has arrived even faster than the numbers.
Selling a condo in Toronto right now: price for two months from now
This was the sharpest advice of the episode. If you are selling, don't price at today's market. Dion's take is to price at where the market will be two or three months from now, which is likely lower than what you see in the stats. Prices are moving in one direction, and chasing them down one reduction at a time costs you more than getting it right on day one.
Gary framed it with a line he uses a lot: let your future self make today's decisions. If you know where the market is heading, make the call now instead of later.
The conversation to have with your realtor is simple. The buyer looking at your unit has five or six others they could choose instead. What makes yours the one?
Buying a condo in the GTA: buyers hold the cards
For buyers, this is a strong window. Dion still has clients buying condos, and they are getting excellent deals. You can be selective. If you don't get your price this month, waiting a month or two is a reasonable move in a market that keeps easing. Dion doesn't expect things to improve for sellers over the winter. His advice: put on your winter boots and get out there.
Moving from one home to another? How a bridge loan works
Dion closed with a client story many families will recognize. In 2021, a young couple sold in Etobicoke and moved to Barrie, where they got twice the home for the same money. Remote work made it make sense. Then the wife, an Ontario government employee, was called back to the office full time. With small kids, the commute became unsustainable. They have now sold in Barrie and are buying in Newmarket.
The tricky part of any move is closing dates. You can try to close the sale and the purchase on the same day, close the sale first and be homeless for a few days, or do what most people do: close the purchase a few days before the sale.
That last option means your down payment, say $200,000 tied up in the home you're selling, isn't available yet on the day you buy. The fix is a bridge loan. The same lender providing your long-term mortgage covers the gap for those few days, knowing the money from your sale is on its way.
And it costs far less than people assume. Bridge loans usually run at prime or prime plus a little. Dion recently ran the numbers for a client and it came to about $100 a day in interest. For around $300, you skip moving twice, skip the hotel, and skip the stress of a same-day closing where one late lawyer or bank can blow up the whole day.
Thinking about buying or selling a condo?
If you own a condo and want to know where yours really sits in this market, or you're ready to buy while buyers hold the cards, reach out to
Gary McGowan at homes@garyamcgowan.com.
For mortgage and bridge loan questions, connect with Dion Beg at kangamortgage.ca or on Instagram at @thedionBeg.
Written by Paige Kirkdene for RealtyChatter. Real estate, in plain English.
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