Toronto Condo Market Hits Zero: What This Means for Buyers and Sellers

Paige Kirkdene
2 days ago
2 min read

The Toronto Star dropped a bombshell this week, and the headlines are already running wild: ZERO new condo projects launched in the Greater Toronto Area.

Let me break down what is actually happening, because the narrative matters more than the numbers.

First, the Facts

For the first time in over 30 years, no new condo projects launched in the GTHA during Q1 2026. Resale condo prices have dropped roughly 25% from their 2022 peak. Only 246 new condos sold in the first quarter, down 52% year over year, and 94% below the 10-year average.

Unsold inventory hit a record high at 4,295 units. There is 92 months of inventory for completed new condos. Almost 1,000 condo units were cancelled in Q1 alone, all being converted to rentals.

We Are Likely at the Bottom

But here is what the doom-scrollers are missing.

Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation, put it plainly: It is safe to say we are at the bottom for sales. We actually cannot really go lower.

The newly announced HST rebate is already starting to stir interest. And with 92 months of inventory, yes the supply is high, but that also means buyers have more choice than ever before.

My Opinion

This is not a market collapse. It is a market correction that has run its course.

The agents who will thrive in this environment are the ones who stop spreading fear and start educating their clients. Yes, prices have corrected. But for buyers ready to make a move, the math is now more favourable than it has been in years.

And for sellers? The condos that are selling are the ones that are priced in line with resale. Overpriced listings are sitting. Smartly priced ones are moving.

The opportunity in this market is not about timing the bottom. It is about understanding value and acting on it.

Ready to explore what your condo is worth in todays market? Get a free valuation at homes.realtychatter.com