Did the Toronto Market Just Bottom Out? What June's Numbers Are Telling Us

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_k10M0i22uA

Sales are up almost 10%. Prices are down. Listings are drying up. So did the Toronto real estate market quietly find its floor in June and nobody noticed?

I sat down with mortgage broker Dion Beg to dig through the June 2026 TRREB Market Watch report, and there are a few things in here worth paying attention to whether you're thinking about buying or selling this year.

The headline numbers

June saw 6,770 home sales across the board, up almost 10% from last June. That is roughly 600 more homes than the month before.

Here is where it gets interesting. New listings are down about 13%. Active listings are down 13.5%. And the average price is down about 3.9% year over year.

So fewer homes for sale, but more of them actually selling. What does that tell you? The sellers who are listed right now are willing to meet the market. They are meeting buyers on price, and that is showing up in the numbers.

Meeting the market is the whole game

This is the conversation Dion and I have with clients constantly. If you price your home where the market actually is, it sells. If you don't, those days on market climb to 60, 90, and beyond, and the home just sits there.

The fear a lot of sellers carry is that "meeting the market" means dropping $100,000 or $200,000. In most cases right now, it doesn't. More on that in a second.

The condo window

Condos are their own story. Sales are up 14.3% year over year, but prices are down 9.5%.

Investors are stepping back from the condo space, and more first-time buyers are stepping in. Dion has done a bunch of first-time buyer deals this year on smaller units, some as small as 350 square feet, selling for under $300,000.

Here is the part worth sitting with: some of these condos are selling below what it would cost to build them today. If you are a long-term buyer who can handle a few years of noise in the condo market and hold for five to ten years, this could be one of those windows you look back on in 2030 and wish you'd acted.

Just know these may not cash flow in the short term. You have to believe in where the market is headed.

416 vs 905

The gap between the city and the suburbs is real. In June, the average condo price in the 416 was $665,000. In the 905, it was $563,000. That is a $100,000 difference, more than 20%.

If you are hunting for value, that spread is worth understanding before you decide where to look.

The supply problem nobody's talking about

I spent a week with a close friend from Toronto whose company supplies concrete to the major builders across the GTA. He has been in the industry 25 years and says he has never seen this many projects put on hold.

Concrete is the canary in the coal mine. When builders stop ordering concrete, nothing is getting built behind it. And roughly one in five jobs in Canada ties back to construction in some way, so a slowdown here ripples through the whole economy.

The bigger issue is down the road. If we are not building now, then in 2030, 2031, 2032, the demand is going to be there and the homes and condos won't be. That sets up a real supply crunch.

Detached homes might be near the bottom

Here is the number that stood out to me most. Detached prices are down only about 2% year over year, and that small drop pushed detached sales volume up nearly 10%.

Think about what that means. Last year a seller wanted a million and it wasn't moving. This year they trim it by 2%, roughly $20,000, list at $980,000, and it sells. Buyers didn't need a massive discount. They needed a small, honest adjustment to feel comfortable moving forward.

My opinion: I don't like calling the bottom of a market. But when a 2% price drop unlocks a 10% jump in sales, that tells me the detached market may be close to its floor.

Summer is a seasonal opportunity

April, May, and June are almost always the busiest months on any market. July and August slow down. Everyone is on holiday.

So when you see the headlines next month saying sales are down, remember that is seasonality, not a crash.

Here is the opportunity. A lot of buyers pause over the summer and plan to jump back in come September when the kids are in school. A lot of sellers hold their home off the market until fall too. If you stay active while everyone else goes dormant, you may pick up a deal with less competition. That works both ways, for buyers and sellers.

Bonus: second mortgage or refinance?

We closed the episode on a question we get all the time. Should you keep your low-rate first mortgage and add a second, or break it and refinance into one new mortgage?

The answer is always: it depends. If you have a first mortgage at 4% and need to pull equity, a second mortgage might sit at 6% to 15% because the lender is taking on more risk. The alternative is one new first mortgage at, say, 5%.

The only way to know which wins is to run both scenarios and compare the weighted average cost. Sometimes keeping the low first and adding a second is smarter. Sometimes one clean new mortgage is. Don't guess, do the math.

Bottom line

Home sales are up, listings are tight, and sellers are finally meeting the market. There are real opportunities out there this summer for both buyers and sellers who are willing to stay active.

If you are thinking about a move in the GTA this year, let's talk through your options and what the numbers mean for your specific situation.