Is This the Bottom? What March’s Numbers Reveal About What’s Next

My friends, if you’re reading headlines about the March housing stats and thinking, “Yikes,” you’re not alone. Sales are down, listings are up, and prices are slipping. It’s a tense time for agents, investors, and buyers trying to figure out where we’re headed next.

But here’s what I know: real estate is a long game, and when you zoom out past the month-to-month noise, the full picture starts to look a whole lot more strategic than scary.

Let’s dig into what the Metro Deep Dive – April 2025 report from Edge Analytics revealed and why—despite the headlines—I think the second half of 2025 could be a major pivot point for the Canadian market.

📉 The Numbers: March Was Tough

Let’s start with the hard truth: the GTA had another rough month. Seasonally adjusted sales were down 2.4% in March, on the heels of a dramatic 28.5% drop in February. Year-over-year, we’re down 25% from already low 2024 levels. It was the worst March for sales since 1998.

Inventory? That’s ballooned. Active listings rose nearly 90% year-over-year, with detached inventory in the 416 up over 160%. Condo listings hit a March record, and months of inventory climbed to 4.8—one of the highest readings since 2000. In the condo segment specifically, it’s the highest it’s been in at least two decades .

Prices are following the inventory trend. The MLS HPI dropped 1.4% in March after a 1.5% drop in February. Year-over-year, prices are down 3.8%, with condos falling 4.8%.

Even power-of-sale listings are ticking up—278 of them in March alone. That’s a strong signal that labour market weakness is feeding into mortgage stress .

🌊 But There’s a Bigger Story Here

That’s the data. But data is just one side of the story. Context is everything—and when you dig into the deeper trends, the outlook begins to shift. There are three key reasons to stay optimistic, and I think we’re going to look back at this period as a setup, not a setback.

1. Pent-Up Demand Is Building Like a Coiled Spring

Let’s talk buyer demand. Edge Analytics makes this point crystal clear: yes, demand is extremely weak right now, especially in Ontario. But that doesn’t mean people no longer want to own homes.

It means they’re waiting.

And when people wait too long, it builds pressure—like holding a beach ball underwater. Eventually, it surges back up. “Sales simply can’t stay at these levels over the longer term given the demographic backdrop,” notes the report .

And despite immigration policy headlines, the real story is that the slowdown in population growth is due to fewer temporary residents—mostly renters. Permanent resident numbers—aka future homeowners—are still running near record levels .

That’s key. This isn’t a demand problem—it’s a timing problem. And the release valve may be closer than we think.

2. Affordability Is Quietly Improving

I always say, people don’t buy houses—they buy payments. And those payments? They’re finally moving in the right direction.

Edge Analytics projects that if interest rates move as expected, we could see a 30% drop in monthly mortgage payments by the end of summer compared to the peak in late 2023. That’s a game-changer for affordability .

Add to that the fact that wage growth is at 25-year highs (outside the pandemic), and household savings are nearing 30-year highs. That’s real capital being built up. People are getting ready—they’re just waiting for the signal to re-enter the market .

And that signal might be coming sooner than expected.

3. We’re Still Massively Undersupplied

Let’s bust a myth: rising inventory doesn’t mean we’ve suddenly fixed our supply problem.

The truth is, even after three years of sluggish resale activity, national inventory is still below the levels we saw from 2010 to 2020. And when we zoom into new construction? Single-family home permits are at a 40-year low. That’s especially true in Ontario and BC .

Even condo starts are falling off a cliff. In the past 12 months, only 4,000 new condos have sold in the GTA compared to 36,000 at the 2022 peak. At this pace, the report warns we could be looking at fewer than 5,000 condo completions by 2029. Compare that to the 18,000 resale condo transactions we saw in the last 12 months. The math isn’t pretty—that’s a looming shortage .

So yes, we’re seeing more listings now, but the construction pipeline tells a very different long-term story.

📉 Why Rates Matter More Than Ever

Let’s circle back to the economic backdrop. The job market is weakening—Canada shed 33,000 jobs in March, the largest drop in over three years. The unemployment rate in Toronto spiked to 8.8%, and long-term unemployment is at the highest level since 2011, excluding the pandemic .

This softness is what’s fuelling talk of rate cuts.

Markets are now pricing in a 60% chance of a Bank of Canada rate cut in April, with Edge Analytics forecasting cuts at every meeting until July. The goal? Get the overnight rate down to 2% to stimulate demand .

That kind of rate drop could bring mortgage rates into the low 3s—or even high 2s for insured buyers. That’s what could flip the switch and start unleashing the pent-up demand we talked about earlier.

🛠️ How to Prepare: Advice for Realtors and Investors

Here’s where the rubber meets the road.

If you’re a Realtor®: this is the time to reach out to your database. Buyers are anxious, uncertain, and looking for clarity. Be their guide—not their salesperson. Educate them on how affordability is changing. Show them how much more purchasing power they could have this summer.

If you’re an investor: this could be your entry point. The report’s condo cash flow index shows the best returns in three years. Even at 80% loan-to-value, condos are now cash flow positive when factoring in principal pay-down. It’s not a slam dunk yet, but we’re getting close .

📈 Final Word: The Back Half of 2025 Could Be a Big Opportunity

I won’t sugar-coat it—March was rough. But history tells us that inflection points often come when sentiment is low and conditions feel uncertain.

The fundamentals are shifting in a positive direction:

• Buyer intentions are real, not just theoretical.

• Affordability is improving thanks to rates, wages, and savings.

• And supply is quietly tightening for the future.

As Edge Analytics puts it: “We’ll end the year with HIGHER home sales compared to 2024.” I agree. This feels like the bottom of the curve—and those who prepare now will be the ones best positioned when the bounce begins.

Source: Edge Analytics, “Metro Deep Dive – April 2025”