GTA Real Estate 2026, The Truth Behind the Headlines with Dion Beg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRbREgUYRhc

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board has released its latest market forecast, and the headlines are loud. Prices are expected to soften. Confidence is low. Sales remain below historical averages.

But here’s what most people are missing.

In a recent deep dive with mortgage expert Dion Beg, we unpacked what the data actually means for buyers, sellers, and investors across the GTA 

Let’s break it down.

1. Population Growth Is Still Fuelling Demand

Yes, you’re hearing that people are leaving Canada.

But here’s the nuance.

The drop is largely in non permanent residents, especially student visas. Permanent residents continue to arrive steadily, and permanent residents typically buy within the first couple of years of landing 

Translation?

Rental demand may soften. Ownership demand remains structurally strong.

That’s a critical distinction.

2. Pent Up Demand Is Real

2021 was a FOMO year. Buyers rushed in above normal transaction levels.

Since then, sales have trended well below the long term average 

That red gap below average sales represents people who want to buy but have been waiting for stability.

Rates have dropped from roughly 6.5 percent to closer to 4 percent. Prices have corrected. Inventory has increased.

The psychological pressure valve is building.

When confidence returns, that demand does not trickle in. It surges.

3. The $589 Monthly Gap Holding Buyers Back

One of the most telling insights from the forecast is this.

There is roughly a $589 monthly gap between what renters can afford and what ownership would cost 

In mortgage terms, that’s about a $120,000 difference in purchase power.

We’re seeing this daily in real conversations.

A buyer earning $90,000 may qualify for $475,000. But the property they want is $600,000. That gap is bridged in two ways:

• Parental down payment gifts

• Adding family income to the application

The Bank of Mom and Dad is not a trend. It’s a structural force in this market.

4. Rents Are Softening, But That May Be Temporary

Rental supply is rising. Purpose built rental buildings are increasing. Condos that were intended for sale are shifting to rentals 

Basic economics applies.

More supply. Slower demand. Rents are down about 5 percent year over year 

But here’s the twist.

If rents rise by just $500 per month, many renters say that would push them to buy 

That same $500 threshold keeps showing up in the data.

It’s the tipping point.

5. First Time Buyers Will Lead 2026

First time buyers are projected to represent a large share of transactions this year 

Why?

Because they’ve been waiting.

They missed the 2021 surge. They sat through the rate hikes. Now they’re seeing:

• Lower prices than peak

• Lower rates than 2023

• More inventory and negotiating power

For sellers of entry level homes, condos, and townhouses, this is a key signal.

Market to the first time buyer.

6. Listings Are Up, Buyers Have Leverage

Months of inventory have increased across all segments 

Condos sit around six months of inventory. Detached homes around five.

Buyers have choice.

And buyers expect deals.

That means pricing discipline is everything. The market does not care what your neighbour sold for in 2022.

It cares about today.

7. Sales Are Still 30 to 40 Percent Below Normal

Even if we hit 70,000 sales this year, that’s still well below the historical sweet spot of roughly 90,000 to 100,000 annual transactions 

Each home sale injects roughly $64,000 into the local economy through moving, furniture, renovations, and services 

When transaction volume drops, the economic ripple effect is massive.

This is not just a housing story.

It’s an economic story.

8. Down Payments Remain Strong

Equity remains solid for move up buyers. But here’s the big insight.

Gifts from parents are everywhere.

For first time buyers, roughly $21,000 out of every $100,000 down payment is coming from family 

Even second and third time buyers are receiving support, roughly $16,000 per $100,000 down 

Multi generational wealth transfer is actively shaping this market.

The Bottom Line

This is not a crash market.

It is a transition market.

Confidence is low. Prices have corrected. Inventory is up. Rent is softening. Buyers are cautious.

But underneath it all:

• Permanent population growth continues

• Pent up demand is building

• First time buyers are preparing

• Pre approvals are rising

As Dion Beg shared, the number of pre approvals his team is processing is significantly higher than last year 

That is not fear.

That is preparation.

And preparation is the first signal of movement.

If you’re a buyer, this may be the most negotiable environment you’ve seen in years.

If you’re a seller, strategy and pricing matter more than ever.

And if you’re sitting on a renewal this year, get your lender offer early and get a second opinion. It costs nothing and could save you thousands 

The pendulum always swings.

The question is not if.

It’s whether you’re ready when it does.