Toronto Condo Crisis: 16,000 Unsold Units and What It Means for Buyers & Investors

The Toronto real estate market is facing one of its biggest challenges in years: over 16,000 brand new condos remain unsold across the GTA. That’s the equivalent of nearly 50 empty condo towers, a startling figure that has both buyers and investors asking the same question: What happens next?

In a recent discussion with mortgage broker Dion Beg, we dove into the numbers behind this growing crisis and explored where the opportunities might still be hiding.

Why Are There So Many Unsold Condos in Toronto?

According to data from the Altus Group and the Toronto Real Estate Board, new condo sales have dropped nearly 60% year-over-year. While demand once outpaced supply, buyers are now stepping back for several reasons:

• Sky-high pre-construction prices: Many new units were sold at $1,200–$1,700 per square foot, while resale units across the street were going for $900.

• Rising costs for builders: Developers built during a period of material and labor shortages, locking in high costs that now make it difficult to lower prices further.

• Shifting market psychology: Buyers are questioning whether pre-construction condos make sense when older units are available at more attractive prices.

The Harsh Reality for Builders

Unlike homeowners, builders don’t have as much flexibility. A seller who bought a house 10 years ago can lower their asking price and still walk away with a profit. Developers, on the other hand, risk selling at a loss if they slash prices too far below construction costs.

This is why we’re seeing developers hold onto inventory instead of aggressively discounting. Instead, many are offering incentives and perks, think upgraded finishes, parking, or maintenance fee breaks, rather than reducing sticker prices.

Buyers Running Into the Market

Despite the doom-and-gloom headlines, some buyers are taking advantage of the uncertainty. Dion Beg shared two stories that highlight this strategy:

1. A 21-year-old first-time buyer who secured a bachelor condo for $450,000 (about $940/sq ft), significantly below recent highs. Her goal isn’t quick profit, but simply getting her foot on the property ladder.

2. Parents of a five-year-old child who bought a condo today as a future investment. Their plan? Use the property as either a starter home for their child or as equity to fund a larger purchase down the road.

Both cases show that while the short-term market looks shaky, long-term fundamentals remain strong.

The Future of Toronto Condos

Condo construction starts have plummeted since late 2023, meaning fewer new buildings will be completed in the coming years. While today’s oversupply feels overwhelming, economists predict that by 2029–2030, Toronto could be facing the opposite problem: not enough condos to meet demand.

If history is any guide, today’s market dip could eventually look like a missed opportunity for those who stayed on the sidelines.

Key Takeaways

• There are currently 16,000+ unsold condos in the GTA, but they won’t stay unsold forever.

• Builders are limited in how far they can cut prices due to high construction costs.

• Strategic buyers are targeting older resale units and discounted opportunities in today’s chaos.

• Long-term fundamentals suggest demand will return, especially with construction slowing.

• For investors and families thinking ahead, this may be a window to buy before the market rebounds.

Wrap Up

The Toronto condo market in 2025 is full of contradictions: oversupply today, potential shortages tomorrow. For buyers willing to take a long-term view, this period of uncertainty could be one of the best entry points in years.

As Dion Beg puts it: “In chaos, there’s opportunity, if you have the courage to act.”